Amy Myers Jaffe

Energy consultant and leading expert on the geopolitics of oil, energy, security and risk and an influential thought leader on global energy policy and sustainability

1 March

Green Giant: Renewable Energy and Chinese Power

China already dominates the global solar-panel market, but now it is expanding its support for oil-saving technologies, funding the development and production of everything from batteries to electric cars. The goal is not just to reduce China's dependence on foreign oil and gas but also to avoid putting the country at an economic disadvantage relative to the United States, which will see its own growth boosted by its exports of oil and gas to China. China's aims are also strategic. Beijing hopes to make itself an energy exporter to rival the United States, offering other countries the opportunity to reduce their purchases of foreign oil and gas--and cut their carbon emissions in the process.

6 February

Could a U.S.-Russia Oil Showdown Be Coming?

About a year ago, a seasoned U.S. oil leader with deep political connections explained to me that U.S. shale would be out of the woods by 2018. He thought the U.S. economy would see improved growth under President Trump, pulling up global gross domestic product, and with it, oil demand. At the time, it seemed like a rosy prognostication. I pointed out how easily Russia, armed with a cheap ruble and flexible tax policy, could also increase its own oil output ... That conversation now seems somewhat more prophetic. It raises the question: What would it mean for Saudi Arabia and U.S. shale producers if Russia does an about-face and makes a production push. It's something to watch.

2 August

How Electric Vehicles Could Take a Bite Out of the Oil Market

Overall, we believe there is a reasonable chance global oil consumption will peak by 2040. Especially given the growing preference of city dwellers to live in places with less congestion and pollution, a shift away from cars with internal combustion engines — and from cars in general — looks not only likely but inevitable ... However long it takes, shifting to electric vehicles might not make oil demand level off or decline on its own. But plug-in vehicles, combined with other policies, trends and technologies, will clearly take a toll.

13 September

A Price on Carbon May Be Coming Soon

The most important reason is that big market players and the investors who back them are changing their minds on the issue -- and they're prepared to use their muscle to try to make a carbon price happen. Companies and investors, after all, thrive on transparency and predictability, and they fear that the current state of carbon regulations is too convoluted, making planning difficult and exposing them to risk. They see a price on the emission of carbon as a way to resolve that uncertainty and get some clarity once and for all.

13 April

Since the First Industrial Revolution, oil and gas have played a pivotal role in economic transformation and mobility.

But now, with the prospects that major economies like the United States, China and European nations will try to shift away from oil, producers are coming to realize that their oil reserves under the ground -- sometimes referred to as "black gold" -- could become less valuable in the future than they are today. Of the four scenarios for the future of the industry ... three of them envisage this type of world.

What happens when demand for oil peaks?

9 May

Trends and Changes in Global Energy Markets. Amy Myers Jaffe speaks to the 2016 CFA Annual Conference (video)

How will investors view oil and gas funds if oil prices start to recover? What would global peak oil demand look like, and what impact would it have on energy companies' performance and strategy? Do investors need to worry about "stranded" coal, oil, and gas reserves as part of their risk management?

9 May

The Future of Energy. 2016 CFA Institute Annual Conference

Amy Myers Jaffe walks through the breadth of innovation in traditional energy sources and so-called alternative energy technologies. Energy breakthroughs have lowered the costs of alternatives and provide a viable channel for capital investment and government policy to flow. Jaffe expects a wave of climate change related policies to push economies into alternatives going forward.


5 May

Why the World's Appetite for Oil Will Peak Soon

"Conventional wisdom about steadily rising demand is wrong ...The world's economy is experiencing transform- ational changes that will dramatically alter patterns of energy use over the next 20 years. Exponential gains in industrial productivity, software-assisted logistics, urbanization, political turmoil in key regions of the developing world, and large bets on renewable energy are among the factors combining to slow the previous breakneck growth for oil."

August 18

If Peak Oil Arrives, Investors Will Need to Get Smarter

"In 2014 oil was considered one of the safest bets around -- regulation and technology might crimp demand in the industrialised west but as more of the developing world's poor moved into the middle-class, oil demand would remain strong. Fast forward to 2016, and many analysts, including those in strategic planning departments of large oil companies, are starting to warm to the idea of peak oil demand globally, not just in the OECD."

Energy Market Globalization: Geopolitical Interactions and
Market Impacts

"All the indictors are these long structural downward lines, which give you the option to export material. The United States has this incredibly unique opportunity with these exports ... If all this material is going to leave the U.S. at a spot market-related price, then the price leadership of transparent market prices becomes double pressure on OPEC."

The Baker Institute  •  Rice University